Strategic calculations and choices | Israel Hamas conflict

• Hamas's unexpected multi-pronged infiltration and attack inside Israel has blown up the status quo, disrupting the existing balance between Israel and the Palestinians, causing a setback in the peace process. This attack has the potential to impede the ongoing efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, in the broader perspective, it might also prompt Israel to consider a peaceful resolution to the issue in the long run.

• As an immediate counter-action to Hamas' attack, Israel has besieged Gaza and is poised for a ground offensive. However, eradication of Hamas' in an enclave of 2.3 million impoverished population may be impossible. It may push Hamas' toward a long lasting guerrilla warfare. Also, Israel must calculate the cost of a longer conflict, learning from the recent conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. Israel must see if a hard and deep offensive would really be compatible with Israel's long term interests.

• A ground offensive would obviously jeopardize the safety of Israeli hostages in the hands of Hamas'. According to media reports, Hamas' has already spread the hostages in the entire length and breadth of Gaza. Self-restraint, therefore, matters more than ever. It is in Israel’s interest, because street fighting is perilous and the hostages are defenceless.

• A hard and deep Israeli ground offensive would prolong in duration and, thus, contains the risk of involvement of Hizbullah and Iran. It would widen the conflict involving multiple war actors. Israel will be in grave peril if the war in Gaza spreads to its northern border with Lebanon, where tensions with Hizbullah, a formidably armed militia, are already growing ominously. The situation may have wider implications for neighboring countries and the overall stability of the Middle East. Is Israel ready to sustain and spread the conflict?

• A wider war would further wreck the détente, built on the Abraham accords, between Israel and its Arab neighbours, including Bahrain, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and potentially Saudi Arabia.

• And very importantly, the Israeli strategists must foresee the end-game of the ground offensive? Apparently, Israel has no good options: According to most conservative strategic calculations, occupation is unsustainable, a Hamas government is unacceptable; rule by its rival - Fatah, is untenable; an Arab peacekeeping force is unattainable; and a puppet government is unimaginable. If Israel destroys Hamas in Gaza and pulls out, who knows what kind of forces will fill the vacuum left behind?

• Israeli strategists must therefore start thinking about how to create the conditions for life alongside the Palestinians. The only way forward, for Israel and its Arab allies, is to create stability and, sequentially, peace.

Credits: The Economist. The Washington Post. The Guardian. The New York Times. ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97NAcxo0E0E