Fixing the CDC's Problematic COVID Death Numbers

Posted an updated version of our paper on fixing the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC)’s problematic pneumonia, influenza, and COVID-19 (PIC) death numbers.

John F. McGowan, Ph.D., Tam Hunt, Josh Mitteldorf, PhD. Improving CDC Data Practices Recommendations for Improving the United States Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Data Practices for Pneumonia, Influenza, and COVID-19 (v 1.1). Authorea. November 29, 2021. DOI: 10.22541/au.163822197.79126460/v1

Key points are:

o The CDC has at least three different estimates/counts of deaths from influenza and pneumonia before March 2020, two of which (FluView and the leading causes of death report) differ by a factor of over three.

o The likely cause of the discrepancy between the FluView and leading causes of death numbers is that the FluView numbers, based on the technical notes, count any death where pneumonia and/or influenza is listed as “a cause of death” whereas the leading causes of death report counts only deaths where pneumonia and/or influenza is listed as the “underlying cause of death.”

o What does this mean for COVID? The CDC’s deaths “from COVID” are probably comparable to the larger FluView deaths — about 188,000 deaths per year before March 2020 — or an even larger number due to heart attack-like deaths attributed to COVID.

o Extensive failures to follow common scientific and engineering practice and use of confusing terminology. Lack of statistical and systematic errors, especially with respect to the assignment of a/the cause of death which many studies show is substantially uncertain — as appears illustrated by the discrepancy between the leading causes of death report and the FluView numbers. Frequent confusion between what is a model/estimate and what is a count.

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