Why You're Probably Not a Simulation

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Have you ever have a dream you were so sure was real? The simulation argument challenges our very notions of reality by asking whether everything we perceive is nothing more than an elaborate computer simulation. Recently, we've even seen headlines like "one in a billion" probability that we live in the real world. Could this be right? How does this affect how we think about our lives? And are there any counter-arguments to save us? New research from the Cool Worlds Lab resolves.

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Thank-you to Kevin Clark, Tom Widdowson, Denny Smith, Stephanie Hackley, Mark Sloan, Laura Sanborn, Kolos Kantor, Patrick Herman, Abel Aganbegyan, Claudio Bottaccini, Daniel Brunk, Douglas Daughaday, Scott Fincher, James Kindred, Andrew Jones, Jason Allen, Steven Baldwin, Jason Black, Stuart Brownlee, Shivam Chaturvedi, David Denholm, Tim Dorais, Glen Downton, Eneko Urrestarazu, Gordon Fulton, Sean Griffiths, Peter Halloran, John Jurcevic, Niklas Kildal, Jack Kobernick, Wes Kobernick, Valeri Kremer, Marc Lijoi, Sheri Loftin, Branden Loizides, Anatoliy Maslyanchuk, Blair Matson, Ocean Mcintyre, Laini Mitchell, Jeffrey Needle, André Pelletier, Juan Rivillas, Bret Robinson, Zenith Star, Lauren Steely, Ernest Stefan-Matyus, Mark Steven, Elena West, Barrett York, Tristan Zajonc, Preetumsingh Gowd, Shaun Kelsey, Chuck Wolfred, David Vennel, Emre Dessoi, Fahid Naeem, Francisco Rebolledo, Hauke Laging, James Falls, Jon Adams, Michael Gremillion, Pierce Rutherford, Trev Kline, Tristan Leger, Lasse Skov & Takashi Hanai.

::Our new paper upon which this video is based:: ► Kipping, David (2020), "A Bayesian Approach to the SImulation Argument", Universe, 6, 109: https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/universe6080109

::Other references used:: ► Bostrom, Nick (2003), "Are You Living in a Computer Simulation?", Philosophical Quarterly, 53, 243: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9213.00309 ► Carroll, Sean (2016), "Maybe We Do Not Live in a Simulation: The Resolution Conundrum", Preposterous Universe: http://www.preposterousuniverse.com/blog/2016/08/22/maybe-we-do-not-live-in-a-simulation-the-resolution-conundrum/ ► Poundstone, William (2019), "The Doomsday Calculation: How an Equation that Predicts the Future Is Transforming Everything We Know About Life and the Universe", Little, Brown Spark

::Chapters:: 00:00 Prologue 01:39 Simulation Argument 05:34 Consequences 10:01 Counterarguments 20:32 Probability 28:01 Nulliparous 32:01 Finale

::Video clips used:: ► Matrix code clip by thebiggsmith ► Unrealistic Engine 4 footage by PredCaliber ► Sierra supercomputer video by Verge Science ► Fly through space video by ESO/L.Calçada/spaceengine.org: https://www.eso.org/public/videos/GarchingOPIS-zoom/ ► Supernova simulation by S. Drasco/C. Ott/SXS Collaboration: https://youtu.be/oxGajNoPz8c ► Blackhole simulation by ESO/S. Brunier ► Atom visualization by Nature Videos ► Data center footage by G Suite/Google ► Elon Musk interview by Recode ► Neil deGrasse Tyson clip from StarTalk ► Simulation debate clip from AMNH

::Movies/TV scenes used:: ► The Matrix (1999) Warner Bros. ► The Matrix Reloaded (2003) Warner Bros. ► Into the Wild (2007) Paramount Vantage ► The Grey (2011) Open Road Films ► The Truman Show (1998) Paramount Pictures ► Cloud Atlas (2012) Warner Bros. ► Dorian Gray (2009) Momentum Pictures ► Red Dead Redemption 2 (2019) Rockstar Games ► Tenet (2020) Warnes Bros. ► Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (2017) EuropaCorp Distribution ► Pride and Predujice (2005) Focus Features ► Star Wars: The Phantom Menace (1999) 20th Century Fox ► Westworld (2016) HBO

::Music:: Music used is licensed by SoundStripe.com (SS) [shorturl.at/ptBHI], or via Creative Commons (CC) Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), or with permission from the artist ► "Cylinder Four" by Chris Zabriskie licensed under a CC Attribution license: http://chriszabriskie.com/cylinders/ ► "Fragmented" by Hill, used with permission from the artist: https://hillmusic.bandcamp.com/album/shade-upon-thy-right-hand ► "Painted Deserts" by Shimmer licensed via SS ► "We Were Never Meant to Live Here" by Chris Zabriskie licensed under a CC Attribution license: http://chriszabriskie.com/neptuneflux/ ► "Y" by Joachim Heinrich licensed under a CC Attribution license: https://joachimheinrich.bandcamp.com ► "Cylinder Five" by Chris Zabriskie licensed under a CC Attribution license: http://chriszabriskie.com/cylinders/ ► "Horizon" by Joachim Heinrich licensed under a CC Attribution license: https://joachimheinrich.bandcamp.com ► "Trace Correction" by Indive licensed licensed under a CC Attribution license: https://indive.bandcamp.com

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